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There are three primary ways of calculating GDP: first, by adding up what everyone earned in a year known as the income approach or by adding up what everyone spent in a year the expenditure method.
Logically, both measures should arrive at roughly the same total. The income approach, which is sometimes referred to as GDP I , is calculated by adding up total compensation to employees, gross profits for incorporated and non-incorporated firms, and taxes less any subsidies.
The expenditure method is the more common approach and is calculated by adding private consumption and investment, government spending, and net exports.
Finally, GDP can equivalently be measured based on the value of goods or services produced in an economy over the course of the year the production or output approach.
Because economic output requires expenditure and is, in turn, consumed, these three methods for computing GDP all arrive at the same value.
In general, the following simplified equation is often employed to calculate a nation's GDP via the expenditure approach:. GDP is an important measurement for economists and investors because it is a representation of economic production and growth.
Both economic production and growth have a large impact on nearly everyone within a given economy. When the economy is healthy, there is usually a lower level of unemployment, and wages tend to increase as businesses hire more labor to meet the growing demand of the economy.
Economists look at positive GDP growth between different time periods usually year-to-year to make an assessment of how much an economy is flourishing.
Conversely, if there is negative GDP growth, it may be an indicator that an economy is in or approaching a recession or an economic downturn. Investors pay attention to the GDP because a significant percentage change in the GDP—either up or down—can have a significant impact on the stock market.
In general, a bad economy usually means lower earnings for companies. And this can translate into lower stock prices. Investors may pay attention to positive and negative GDP growth when they are devising an investment strategy.
However, it's important to note that because GDP is a measurement of the economy in the previous quarter or year, it is better used to help explain how economic growth and production have impacted your stocks and your investments in the past.
It is not considered a helpful predictor of how the market will move in the future. In one number figure, a country's GDP is capable of conveying a very limited range of information about that country's economy.
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But if a year's worth of food, clothing and other items costs three times as much in Ireland than China, however, the worker in China has a higher real income.
Most nations release GDP data every month and quarter. The BEA releases are exhaustive and contain a wealth of detail, enabling economists and investors to obtain information and insights on various aspects of the economy.
However, GDP data can have an impact on markets if the actual numbers differ considerably from expectations. GDP increased at a 2.
The data fueled speculation that the stronger economy could lead the U. Federal Reserve the Fed to scale back its massive stimulus program that was in effect at the time.
Because GDP provides a direct indication of the health and growth of the economy, businesses can use GDP as a guide to their business strategy.
Government entities, such as the Federal Reserve in the U. If the growth rate is slowing they might implement an expansionary monetary policy to try to boost the economy.
If the growth rate is robust, they might use monetary policy to slow things down in an effort to ward off inflation. Real GDP is the indicator that says the most about the health of the economy.
It is widely followed and discussed by economists, analysts, investors, and policymakers. The advance release of the latest data will almost always move markets, though that impact can be limited as noted above.
Investors watch GDP since it provides a framework for decision-making. The "corporate profits" and "inventory" data in the GDP report are a great resource for equity investors, as both categories show total growth during the period; corporate profits data also displays pre-tax profits, operating cash flows and breakdowns for all major sectors of the economy.
Comparing the GDP growth rates of different countries can play a part in asset allocation, aiding decisions about whether to invest in fast-growing economies abroad and if so, which ones.
One interesting metric that investors can use to get some sense of the valuation of an equity market is the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP , expressed as a percentage.
The closest equivalent to this in terms of stock valuation is a company's market cap to total sales or revenues , which in per-share terms is the well-known price-to-sales ratio.
Just as stocks in different sectors trade at widely divergent price-to-sales ratios, different nations trade at market-cap-to-GDP ratios that are literally all over the map.
For example, according to the World Bank , the U. However, the utility of this ratio lies in comparing it to historical norms for a particular nation.
As an example, the U. In retrospect, these represented zones of substantial overvaluation and undervaluation, respectively, for U.
The biggest downside of this data is its lack of timeliness; investors only get one update per quarter and revisions can be large enough to significantly alter the percentage change in GDP.
GDP first came to light in a report to the U. At the time, the preeminent system of measurement was GNP. After the Bretton Woods conference in , GDP was widely adopted as the standard means for measuring national economies, though ironically the U.
Beginning in the s, however, some economists and policymakers began to question GDP. In other words, these critics drew attention to a distinction between economic progress and social progress.
There are, of course, drawbacks to using GDP as an indicator. In addition to the lack of timeliness, some criticisms of GDP as a measure are:.
The World Bank hosts one of the most reliable web-based databases. It has one of the best and most comprehensive lists of countries for which it tracks GDP data.
The only drawback to using a Federal Reserve database is a lack of updating in GDP data and an absence of data for certain countries.
Department of Commerce, issues its own analysis document with each GDP release, which is a great investor tool for analyzing figures and trends and reading highlights of the very lengthy full release.
They liken the ability of GDP to give an overall picture of the state of the economy to that of a satellite in space that can survey the weather across an entire continent.
GDP enables policymakers and central banks to judge whether the economy is contracting or expanding, whether it needs a boost or restraint, and if a threat such as a recession or inflation looms on the horizon.
Like any measure, GDP has its imperfections. In recent decades, governments have created various nuanced modifications in attempts to increase GDP accuracy and specificity.
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